The first quarter earnings season will dictate the trend in the equity markets in this holiday-shortened week amid absence of major macroeconomic drivers, say analysts. Besides, lacklustre global markets may increase volatility in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Bakri-Id.
India's corporate sector is likely to report a slowdown in revenue growth and earnings for the July-September 2023 period (Q2FY24), according to earnings estimates by brokerages, after the country's top listed companies posted higher than expected profits for the first quarter. The combined net profit of Nifty50 companies, based on brokerage estimates, is expected to have grown by 19.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 trillion in Q2FY24 - a sharp deceleration from 37.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in the combined earnings of index companies in the April-June 2023 period. According to estimates, the combined earnings in the second quarter would be down 8.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the lowest in the past three quarters.
Asset Management Companies (AMCs) demonstrated improved business metrics in the first quarter ended June 2023 (Q1FY24), but a sharp run-up in stocks leaves little room for further upside in the immediate term, say analysts. During this quarter, HDFC AMC reported a 10 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in revenue from operations at Rs 575 crore. Nippon India's revenue from operations went up 12 per cent to Rs 354 crore.
The markets have given a thumbs down to Jubilant FoodWorks results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). The company, which owns and operates Domino's Pizza and Popeyes chain of stores, reported a (standalone) net profit of Rs 75.2 crore in Q1 of FY24 - a drop of 25.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 101 crore, but a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise from Rs 47.5 crore. What's worrying the Street is the likelihood of a dismal Q2FY24 performance, which it feels will be marred by soaring milk, cheese and vegetable prices.
The recent surge in crude oil prices could shave off the gains made by India Inc in profit margins in the past few quarters. Worse, it comes at a time when consumer demand in the country is slipping and major global economies are witnessing a slowdown. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the margin expansion accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the listed firms' operating profit between the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY23 and Q1FY24, and only a quarter of profits gains came from revenue growth.
Cement companies witnessed speculative support from investors through FY23 amid hopes of a rebound. After capex announcements in the FY24 Budget, there was further interest due to expectations that government expenditure would boost earnings, besides a generic macro-recovery. Cement earnings were under pressure in FY22 and FY23 due to high raw material and fuel costs; muted demand prevented them passing on the higher cost.
Notwithstanding the fact that the country's pharmaceutical (pharma) pricing regulator has allowed a 12 per cent price increase for medicines listed under the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) in 2023, analysts and industry insiders predict that the overall domestic pharma industry will only witness a price hike of 5-6 per cent. This is attributed to higher competitive intensity in the market. Krishnakumar V, executive director and chief operating officer (CEO) of Eris Lifesciences, a domestic-focused pharma company, noted that the NLEM segment experienced growth suppression of around 150 basis points due to price reductions during the January to July period this year.
The Reserve Bank India's (RBI's) decision to ban the onboarding of new accounts on the "bob World" mobile digital platform led to a selloff in the Bank of Baroda (BoB) stock. The stock of the public sector bank dropped by around 3 per cent. The central bank cited "material supervisory concerns"; news reports claimed mobile numbers were randomly linked to accounts to purportedly inflate registrations on bob World.
Retail inflation eased to a nearly six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and other protein-rich items, creating enough room for the Reserve Bank to go for another round of rate cut in the June monetary policy review. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.34 per cent in March and 4.83 per cent in April 2024. It was 3.15 per cent in July 2019.
The stock of LTIMindtree finished at Rs 5,001 a piece on Monday, which means it is down about 5 per cent from its all-time high as its June quarter results for the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) missed estimates. A cautious note by the management, coupled with the fact that it will miss its double digit revenue growth target for FY24 weighed on the stock price. The company delivered revenues of just over a billion dollars in the quarter with constant currency growth of 0.1 per cent.
Bharti Airtel has quietly narrowed its adjusted gross revenue (AGR) market share gap with Reliance Jio, the country's largest player in the game, in the last three years. Despite Jio's aggressive entry into 4G and now into 5G, Airtel's gap with Jio, which was 6.4 percentage points in Q1 of FY21 and went up to 7.2 percentage points in Q1 of FY22, has fallen to only 4.4 percentage points in Q1 of FY24. Currently, Reliance Jio's AGR market share is 41.6 per cent while Airtel's is at 37.2 per cent.
'GenAI programmes may not be large in terms of value, but have triggered a lot of new opportunities among clients.'
Stocks of alcoholic beverage makers have corrected over the last few trading sessions on worries that taxes, competition and costs will hurt sales and profitability. The recent trigger for the decline is Karnataka, which accounts for 15 per cent of overall liquor consumption, increasing duties. The state increased by 20 per cent the additional excise duty on Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) on all slabs.
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
IT services major Infosys on Wednesday posted a 22.7 per cent rise in net profit to Rs 5,195 crore for the April-June quarter of 2021-22, and raised its revenue growth outlook for the full fiscal. The Bengaluru-based company's net profit (after minority interest) was at Rs 4,233 crore in April-June 2020. Its revenue from operations grew 17.8 per cent to Rs 27,896 crore in the first quarter of FY22 from Rs 23,665 crore in the year-ago period, Infosys said in a regulatory filing.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined after the information technology (IT) major reported a 1.3 per cent sequential drop in net profit for the March quarter, prompting several brokerages to cut their target prices. The TCS stock fell as much as 1.26 per cent during the day to Rs 3,205 per share.
Among the Sensex stocks, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Maruti Suzuki India, NTPC, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Bharti Airtel, ITC and Tech Mahindra were the major gainers. Reliance Industries, Tata Motors, Infosys, Mahindra and Mahindra, Bajaj Finance and Axis Bank were the laggards.
After the hit of the pandemic, India Inc is now worried about the adverse impact of inflation and higher commodity prices on their revenues and margins. The inflation scare is the strongest among manufacturers of consumer goods such as automobiles, consumer durables, and fast-moving capital goods (FMCG). Companies across sectors fear they will not be able to pass on the hike in input costs to their consumers due to weak demand, which, in turn, would lead to a hit on margins and profitability in the forthcoming quarters.
Telecom major Bharti Airtel on Wednesday said its net profit dipped nearly 28 per cent to Rs 1,215.2 crore (Rs 12.15 billion) in the quarter ended June 30, 2011.
Although a one-off tax provision negatively impacted the bottom line, HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC) posted an excellent operational performance in Q2FY25. The equity quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) growth was 14.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). And, equity AUM market share rose 50 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 12.9 per cent.
State-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) is not keen on a composite license but it is looking to buy less than 50 per cent stake in a standalone health insurance company to enter the health insurance segment such that they have a say in the management of the company, without having to run the company, sources in the know said. "LIC doesn't need a composite licence. "Even if it is introduced, they will not opt for it.
After disappointing guidances in the first quarter (Apr-Jun) of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) and valuation downgrades, the Indian IT sector could see some positive repricing as the bad news for IT maybe easing in Q2FY24. A key negative factor was weaker demand from the US financial sector and from North America in general. The latest GDP (gross domestic product) estimates and sector-specific news suggest that the demand situation may not be quite so bad with a gradual recovery in tech spending in Q2.
Metal and mining companies, such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, and Coal India, have been among the top-performing sectors on the bourses in recent months. The S&P BSE Metal Index is up 13 per cent in the past three months, rallying 29 per cent in the past year, outperforming the broader market. For comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has only seen a 1.7 per cent increase in the past three months, with a 15 per cent gain since the end of September last year.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum may post a combined loss of Rs 10,700 crore in June quarter on selling petrol and diesel at rates below cost, a report said on Monday. While the raw material (crude oil) prices soared in April-June, petrol and diesel prices were not revised, leading to marketing losses which offset strong refining margins, ICICI Securities said in the report. The three state-owned oil marketing companies -- IOC, BPCL and HPCL -- control 90 per cent of the retail petrol and diesel sales in the country.
Indian IT services sector's revenue growth will slow down to 3 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.2 per cent in the previous financial year, a domestic ratings company said on Tuesday. Icra Ratings said the profitability will also take a beating in this financial year and the operating profit margin will narrow by up to 1 percentage point to 20-21 per cent. The topline growth will come down to 3-5 per cent in FY24 from the 9.2 per cent posted in FY23, the agency said, attributing the slowdown to softening demand.
Sources close to the development told Business Standard the company was exploring different ways to save on its employee costs and had laid off a few employees on "performance" grounds. "We will see a similar development for the next few months. "The company is fine-tuning its hiring policies and implement rigourous measures to look into employee performance," a source said.
Tata group company and IT major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), on Friday said that it has clocked a net profit of Rs 1,534 crore (Rs 15.34 billion) in Q1 FY 10, up 19 per cent as compared to the year-ago period of Rs 1,290.61 crore (Rs 12.90 billion).
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
The national real estate market presents an intriguing picture. Lower volumes and flat pricing serve as dampeners. Sales bookings across the top ten markets have seen 6 per cent growth year-on-year (Y-o-Y) between April and August 2024, but sales volume is down 8 per cent Y-o-Y. Unsold inventory is up.
Auto industry volumes have grown by 2.5 per cent overall, led by domestic sales of three-wheelers, two-wheelers and passenger vehicles (PVs) in the first quarter of this financial year. Analysts predict an 18 per cent growth in revenues for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and profit growth of 69 per cent year-on-year (YoY). However, on a sequential basis, a decline in revenues as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins is expected.
Anil Ambani Dhirubhai Group company Reliance Capital Ltd on Tuesday posted over a three-fold rise in net profit after tax at Rs 94.53 crore (Rs 945.3 million) for the quarter ended June 30.
'Companies are coming to the campuses, and we have companies booking their slots for the placement season, but the overall number of companies signing is low, and the hiring numbers are also lower.'
Domestic air passenger traffic grew 5.1 per cent year-on-year to an estimated 138.9 million in May and was significantly higher by around 14 per cent than pre-Covid levels, credit ratings agency Icra said on Thursday. Icra also said the outlook on the Indian aviation industry is stable amid the continued recovery in domestic and international air passenger traffic with a relatively stable cost environment and expectations of the trend continuing in FY2025.
Listed housing finance companies (HFCs), as a group, posted a 3.7 per cent drop in second-quarter (Q2) profit year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 5,830 crore and 19 per cent sequentially on rise in interest expenses and uptick in provisions and write-offs. Operating income rose 13.7 per cent YoY to Rs 54,086 crore in Q2 of 2022-23 (FY23). Sequentially, income was up 62.3 per cent, from Rs 33,331 crore in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021-22 (FY22).
MMFS is looking at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 per cent in assets under management (AUM) during FY23 to FY26 on the back of the strong recovery. The company has initiated risk-mitigating initiatives, including diversification into non-vehicle loans, building digital capacity and re-classification of customer profiles into affluent and mass-affluent in semi-urban segments to better target marketing.
The good news is that salary hikes are expected, though it is uncertain when they will be implemented.
Except for Westlife Foodworld (Westlife), a weak 2022-23 (FY23) January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter performance and a muted near-term outlook led to a downward revision of earnings estimates for quick-service restaurant (QSR) players. Brokerages have slashed estimates by as much as 10 per cent for 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25). The downward revisions have weighed on the performance of listed players, who have underperformed the market with low single-digit returns over the past month.
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
The Q2FY25 revenue for Coal India (CIL) was reported at Rs 30,700 crore (down 6 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y and 16 per cent sequentially). The blended average selling price was Rs 1,622/tonne (down 6 per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q). Adjusted operating profit stood at Rs 7,200 crore (down 20 per cent Y-o-Y and 38 per cent Q-o-Q) due to lower-than-expected e-auction volumes and higher costs.
The ratio of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (GDP) in India remains elevated despite the recent correction in the equities markets. It was 147.5 per cent on December 3, 56 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 94 per cent. The current ratio is slightly lower than the all-time high ratio of 154 per cent at the end of September this year.
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